If you read The Independent you’ll probably get endless updates of ‘BREAKING NEWS’ about how the Tories poll lead has been slashed in half, and half again, and again and now ‘LABOUR ARE WITHIN 1 POINT OF THE TORIES’. But if you read The Times you’ll probably be less worried, because the Tories are 10 points ahead, so jobs a good’n. Or, if you’re a regular human being who isn’t obsessed with politics, you’ll probably have no idea what’s going on in the polls because they’re messy, sporadic, and all round painful.
Survation have the lead at 1 point. The latest polling average has the lead at 8 points. The latest ICM poll has the lead at 11 points. Either way, come the 8th June, someone (other than Theresa May) is going to be getting fired.
The reason for this massive gap is because of how the pollsters weight their polls. Meaning how much they rest on the likelihood on voter turnout. For instance, people aged 65+ are incredibly likely to vote, and also very likely to vote Conservative, so they’re weighted strongly. This looks bad for Labour, but is usually accurate (2015, looking at you). The reason Survation poll Labour so close to the Tories is that they’re predicting a high 18-24 turnout, which means a high Labour turnout. Makes sense yeah?
So. If there’s one thing that you’re going to take from the range of polls that isn’t a headache, it’s that the youth vote is basically the only thing in the way of another Tory Government. The Tories know this, which is why their effort to encourage young people to vote was minimal at best; they’re banking on us not voting. June the 8th– get out there.